San Advisor Chen Xinhua Fine Of Ftth Trend – Tokyo, Chen – The Communications Industry

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January 9, 2007 annual meeting of China’s communication technology, the global elite from various quarters together to discuss the strategy of China Telecom technology march.

The following text for a speech:

Chen Xinhua: Ladies and gentlemen Hello, everybody! My speech in three parts, from FTTH to all four factors the development of an overall concept, and then from the global development trends, from Europe, Japan, the United States, Korea, the current situation and development trend of future development with you to look ahead. As well as CCID Consulting, in this view.

After induction and we concluded that four factors currently affecting the development of FTTH, the first policy and regulatory factors, we know about Japan since 2000 had begun on the development of the national promotion of high priority process, from their development to the latest trends can be seen, the Japanese advance in the FTTH is very radical. U.S., South Korea and other countries have also been planning on FTTH. FTTH in the U.S. telecommunications industry is given the development of appropriate incentives. From the cost factor, the current choice of a variety of technical solutions in the final analysis determines the cost and performance, in the end there is a trade-off between the two, given the cost of the plan.

From a business point of view, the current situation based on competition, the countries of the main operators and new operators are looking for the best business entry point, how to improve the ARPU value of new business through the combination of new technologies is that they focus of attention. Tipping Competition brings benefits are great, but the short term, competition will lead to the decline in operating profit, we pass on the domestic and international market analysis and research, we think that our competition to some extent can also stimulate market demand, to promote the sound development of the industry.

2004-2006 this figure was the cost of FTTH construction process, early in 2004 about two thousand dollars, with the active devices, optical fiber passive components cost reduction, FTTH installation costs and equipment costs decreased year by year, 1200 U.S. dollars in 2005, now reach a thousand dollars less. We are given two charts is the process of building FTTH in major ways, a point to point, one-to-multipoint, we briefly explain the difference between point to point and multipoint, multipoint, middle more than a passive device, such as users increase, the cost of laying fiber optic cable can be increased correspondingly. This is from 2002 to 2005 comparison of ADSL and Cable, each country can be seen from the present, the development of broadband services in Japan as a radical, all countries in the global comparison of the lowest price.

Mentioned four factors, business factors that we think the most important factor, because the bandwidth requirements with the new business is the promotion of FTTH the key market factors, from the current view of market demand, IPTV, video telephony, video conferencing, 3D gaming and other bandwidth demand is a key factor promoting the development of FTTH.

Below to look at the status of global development. Europe recently in the first half of 2006, began planning a large-scale experiment, proposed building plans in the first half after starting in June in Paris, France and six other cities, a large-scale experiment, launched operations in July, France Telecom When the end of 2006 to prepare to suspend FTTH, but in December again in 2007 construction projects planned, or to FTTH as the main development. Germany, the European Telecommunication Union restrictions on them, the policy limits their development, that they are newly established FTTN + VDSL technology, competitors must be open, leading to the main operators in Germany in this respect because, now Deutsche Telekom announced the postponement of network planning in this regard. The other European countries, in the process of building FTTH also have had a very positive moment, but limited to European countries on the policy constraints and the lack of business demand, leading European countries in this respect conservative.

Can be seen from the graph, statistics from the end of 2005, the European countries all have access to only 66 en million FTTH users, given the right of the main European FTTH builders and operators, and the Asian countries and the United States have very different, they have a lot of private capital, as well as electric power companies to this market, which, so the distribution of interests led to the existence of the whole situation more complicated.

FTTH development in Japan is very radical, since 2002, preparations for large-scale promotion, including Cable, FTTH, ADSL three types of access, FTTH growth in 2002, lead singer of competition is the share of the competition with the Cable to This trend is slowing down in 2005, ADSL is gradually slowing growth trend, Cable market share remain flat, FTTH increased year by year, ADSL decline year by year.

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